Kentucky Derby 2015: Success of Female Families Since 1970

As I’ve done for the past few years, here’s a quick glance at the historical Kentucky Derby performances (since 1970) of the female families of the current likely Derby starters/alternates.

In order to hopefully pre-emptively account for the inevitable defections/additions, the current top 25 horses by points are listed. This post isn’t as detailed as in previous years, but it’s all pretty much the same after a while.

Only horses that finished in the top three are listed below; however if anyone wants the full list of starters/placings (since 1970) for a particular female family, just let me know and I can provide.


UNRACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD
As Materiality was unraced as a juvenile, much will be made of the “unraced at 2” / “curse of Apollo” angle. If this is something that interests you, see my posts from 2012 and 2014 on the Derby chances of Bodemeister, Constitution, and Hoppertunity (with the latter two ultimately never making the race).

If not, the TL;DR is: There’s nothing whatsoever to this angle, and the number of unraced juveniles in the Derby is historically so low, statistically the performances of these runners are right where they should be. Find another angle to be mystified by.

SHADES OF ’77?
The female family of American Pharoah (Family 14) has had one starter in the Kentucky Derby since 1970. That starter was Run Dusty Run, who would finish 2nd behind Seattle Slew in 1977. Seattle Slew would enter the Derby undefeated in six starts – a record mirroring that of current leading contender Dortmund.

MR. PROSPECTOR / NORTHERN DANCER
Coming as no surprise, of the potential contenders listed below, only three are missing either Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer from their pedigree. Far Right is free of Mr. Prospector and Frammento is free of Northern Dancer, with all other potential entrants possessing both stallions somewhere in their pedigree. There’s no real angle here, it’s just interesting to continue to monitor their influence.


Female Family Horse FF Starters FF in 1-2-3
A1 Frammento 3 1 (33%): Gato Del Sol (1st-1982)
A4 Far Right 9 2 (22%): *California Chrome (1st-2014); Strodes Creek (2nd-1994)
A5 Materiality 3 0 (0%)
2-d El Kabeir 11 6 (55%): Cannonade (1st-1974); *Spectacular Bid (1st-1979); Giacomo (1st-2005); Stephan’s Odyssey (2nd-1985); Proud Citizen (2nd-2002); Steppenwolfer (3rd-2006)
2-f Stanford 9 1 (11%): Blumin Affair (3rd-1994)
3-i Itsaknockout 2 0 (0%)
3-o Madefromlucky 10 2 (20%): No Le Hace (2nd-1972); Golden Act (3rd-1979)
4-g International Star 2 0 (0%)
4-k Firespike 3 0 (0%)
4-r Mubtaahij (IRE) 20 4 (20%): Monarchos (1st-2001); Closing Argument (2nd-2005); Nehro (2nd-2011); Mucho Macho Man (3rd-2011)
5-f Danzig Moon 5 0 (0%)
6-a Ocho Ocho Ocho 4 0 (0%)
6-d Upstart 3 2 (67%): Funny Cide (1st-2003); *Empire Maker (2nd-2003)
8-c War Story 16 2 (13%): *Fusaichi Pegasus (1st-2000); *Orb (1st-2013)
8-f Tencendur 7 0 (0%)
9-c Dortmund 7 2 (29%): *Alydar (2nd-1978); Risen Star (3rd-1988)
13-c Mr. Z 9 2 (22%): *Seattle Slew (1st-1977); Ferdinand (1st-1986)
13-d Keen Ice 2 0 (0%)
14 American Pharoah 1 1 (100%): Run Dusty Run (2nd-1977)
14-b Bold Conquest 6 1 (17%): Foolish Pleasure (1st-1975)
14-c Firing Line 6 0 (0%)
16-g Frosted 16 0 (0%)
23-b Bolo; Carpe Diem 23 8 (35%): Affirmed (1st-1978); *Winning Colors (1st-1988); Lil E. Tee (1st-1992); Mine That Bird (1st-2009); I’ll Have Another (1st-2012); Agitate (3rd-1974); *Chief’s Crown (3rd-1985); Dullahan (3rd-2012)
37 Toasting Master 1 0 (0%)

*Indicates horse went off as the post time favorite

Edited 4/19/2015

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