The below chart lists the historical performance (since 1970) of the female families for the 20 horses (+1 alternate) entered in Kentucky Derby 140.
Of this year’s field, Family 23-b (Harry’s Holiday) has had the most success by an overwhelming margin, with eight horses out of twenty-two entries (36%) finishing in the top three – and three of those eight coming since 2009. The historical performances for the entrants go down from there, ranging from promising to not terrible to bleak, or too small of a sample size to know what to make of it.
Family 4-r (the alternate Pablo Del Monte) is interesting, as they’ve had four top three finishes in the nine starters they’ve sent to the starting gate since 2001. However, Pablo Del Monte does not descend from the specific lines that have had recent success.
Maybe next year I’ll track the performances all the way back to 1875; however, in the early decades the totals seem to be skewed towards what are now long dormant American families, so there might not be much there. Though if anything, long-term tracking of the rise and fall of certain lines as it pertains to the race could be interesting.
|Female Family||Derby Contender||FF Starters||FF in 1-2-3|
|A4||California Chrome||8||1 (13%) – Strodes Creek (2nd 1994)|
|2-f||Chitu||8||1 (13%) – Blumin Affair (3rd 1994)|
|2-o||Medal Count||8||2 (25%) – Invisible Ink (2nd 2001); Diabolo (3rd 1975)|
|3-j||We Miss Artie||2||1 (50%) – Dust Commander (1st 1970)|
|3-l||Candy Boy; Hoppertunity;||11||2 (18%) – Silver Charm (1st 1997); Summer Squall (2nd 1990)|
|4-d||General a Rod||4||1 (25%) – Real Quiet (1st 1998)|
|4-m||Commanding Curve; Vinceremos||34||3 (9%) – Sunny’s Halo (1st 1983); Timber Country (3rd 1995); Prince of Thieves (3rd 1996)|
|4-r||Pablo Del Monte (alternate)||20||4 (20%) – Monarchos (1st 2001); Closing Argument (2nd 2005); Nehro (2nd 2011); Mucho Macho Man (3rd 2011)|
|5-j||Intense Holiday||5||1 (20%) – Peace Rules (3rd 2003)|
|8-d||Danza||2||1 (50%) – Paddy O’Prado (3rd 2010)|
|9-e||Wicked Strong||14||1 (7%) – Captain Bodgit (2nd 1997)|
|9-f||Ride on Curlin; Vicar’s In Trouble; Wildcat Red||33||5 (15%) – Bold Forbes (1st 1976); Aptitude (2nd 2000); Bet Twice (2nd 1987); Wild Gale (3rd 1993); Reinvested (3rd 1982)|
|14-b||Samraat||5||1 (20%) – Foolish Pleasure (1st 1975)|
|20-a||Tapiture||6||1 (17%) – Our Native (3rd 1973)|
|22-c||Dance With Fate||3||None|
|23-b||Harry’s Holiday||22||8 (36%) – Affirmed (1st 1978); Winning Colors (1st 1988); Lil E. Tee (1st 1992); Mine That Bird (1st 2009); I’ll Have Another (1st 2012); Agitate (3rd 1974); Chief’s Crown (3rd 1985); Dullahan (3rd 2012)|