Kentucky Derby 2014: Unsuccessful, infrequently appearing, and rare female families since 1970

Following up on the previous entry of successful families in the Kentucky Derby since 1970, here are some unsuccessful families, rare families, and infrequently appearing families with a demonstrated lack of success up until now, but with room to improve. Potential starters below edited 4/12/2014.

THE UNSUCCESSFUL: Families since 1970 with 5+ Kentucky Derby starters and success rates under 10%

There are a number of families who have been as unsuccessful in the Kentucky Derby as 1-x and 2-d have been successful.

Family 16-g: With sixteen starters in thirteen races, Family 16-g has never hit the board. Two starters (Holy Bull-12th 1994; General Challenge-11th 1999) have gone off as post time favorites. As of mid April 2014, Family 16-g is represented by no likely contenders on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Family 4-m: With thirty-four starters in twenty-four races, Family 4-m has had one win (Sunny’s Halo, 1983) and two thirds (Timber Country, 1995; Prince of Thieves, 1996) – an in the money rate of 9%. Three starters have gone off as post time favorites (Life’s Magic-8th 1984; Unbridled’s Song-5th 1996; Harlan’s Holiday-7th 2002) and in 2002, an incredible 22% of the Derby field was made up of members of 4-m (Request for Parole, Harlan’s Holiday, Blue Burner, Ocean Sound). As of mid April 2014, Family 4-m is represented by Commanding Curve and Vinceremos on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Family 1-c: With eleven starters in ten races, Family 1-c has had one win (Grindstone, 1996) – an in the money rate of 9%. No starters have gone off as post time favorites. As of mid April 2014, Family 1-c is represented by no likely contenders on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Family 9-e: With fourteen starters in twelve races, Family 9-e has had one second (Captain Bodgit, 1997) – an in the money rate of 7%. Two starters have gone off as post time favorites (Snow Chief-11th 1986; Captain Bodgit-2nd 1997). As of mid April 2014, Family 9-e is represented by Wicked Strong on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Family 2-n: With seventeen starters in fifteen races, Family 2-n has had one third (High Echelon, 1970) – an in the money rate of 6%. One starter has gone off as the post time favorite (Point Given-5th 2001). As of mid April 2014, Family 2-n is represented by no likely contenders on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Family 17-b: With nine starters in nine races, Family 17-b has never finished in the money. No starters have gone off as post-time favorites. As of mid April 2014, Family 17-b is represented by no likely contenders on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Families 9 and 14-c: With six starters each (in six and four races, respectively), Families 9 and 14-c have never finished in the money. No starters have gone off as post time favorites. As of mid April 2014, Families 9 and 14-c are represented by no likely contenders on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Families 1-o, 1-p, and 26: With five starters each in five races, Families 1-o, 1-p, and 26 have never finished in the money. Family 1-o had one starter go off as the post time favorite (Rockhill Native-5th 1980). As of mid April 2014, Family 1-o is represented by Uncle Sigh on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Families 3 and 5-f: With five starters each in four races, Families 3 and 5-f have never finished in the money. As of mid April 2014, Family 5-f is represented by Classic Giacnroll on the Kentucky Derby trail.

FF Starters 1st 2nd 3rd 1-2-3 finish Best finish Most recent starter
4-m 34 1 0 2 9% 1st (Sunny’s Halo, 1983); 3rd (Timber Country, 1995; Prince of Thieves, 1996) 2013 (Goldencents, Falling Sky)
1-c 11 1 0 0 9% 1st (Grindstone, 1996) 2013 (Normandy Invasion)
9-e 14 0 1 0 7% 2nd (Captain Bodgit, 1997) 2010 (Backtalk)
2-n 17 0 0 1 6% 3rd (High Echelon, 1970) 2011 (Brilliant Speed, Soldat)
16-g 16 0 0 0 0% 4th (Super Moment, 1980) 2009 (General Quarters)
17-b 9 0 0 0 0% 6th (Pine Circle, 1984; Kimberlite Pipe, 1999) 2011 (Pants on Fire)
9 6 0 0 0 0% 11th (Going Straight, 1971; Meadow Flight, 1994) 2005 (Sun King)
14-c 6 0 0 0 0% 5th (Cape Town, 1998) 2012 (Alpha)
1-o 5 0 0 0 0% 4th (Get the Axe, 1977) 1993 (Corby)
1-p 5 0 0 0 0% 6th (Pass the Tab, 1981; Circular Quay, 2007) 2009 (Atomic Rain)
3 5 0 0 0 0% 5th (Brocco, 1994) 2009 (Hold Me Back, Desert Party)
5-f 5 0 0 0 0% 4th (Classic Go Go, 1981) 2003 (Domestic Dispute)
26 5 0 0 0 0% 6th (Oxbow, 2013) 2013 (Oxbow)

 

THE INFREQUENT: Families with less than 5 starters since 1970 and no in the money finishes

As mentioned in a previous post, the now dominant Family 1-x had no success in their first four attempts at the race (and one or two starters is hardly a large enough sample size to discredit potential future performance). The below chart does not include families who have never had a starter since 1970.

As of early April 2014, horses currently on the Kentucky Derby trail descending from families with four or less starts and no in the money Derby finishes since 1970 are Constitution (8-k), Midnight Hawk (16-a), and Dance With Fate (22-c).

4 starters 1-m; 2-e; 5-e; 6-a; 16; 16-a
3 starters 1-e; 3-d; 3-h; 4-c; 4-k; 5-c; 5-h; 8-k; 11; 14-a; 14-f; 19; 22-c; A5
2 starters 1-t; 2-b; 2-I; 2-w; 3-i; 4-g; 4-h; 4-i; 6-f; 7-e; 12-d; 13-d; 16-b; A24; A29; C2
1 starter 1-d; 1-i; 2-c; 2-p; 3-b; 3-f; 3-g; 3-m; 4-p; 6-e; 7-c; 7-d; 7-f; 8; 9-g; 10-d; 10-e; 11-a; 11-c; 11-g; 12-g; 13; 13-a; 14-d; 15-d; 16-d; 16-f; 18-a; 19-a; 20-c; 22; 22-b; 23; 23-a; 24; 25; 27-a; 37; A11; A13

 

RELATIVELY RARE: American and Colonial Families in the Kentucky Derby since 1970

Twenty-two horses have represented eight American and Colonial families in the Kentucky Derby since 1970. Interestingly, when a horse representing an American or Colonial Family enters the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, they tend to be well-regarded, with four of the twenty-two representatives (18%) going off as post time favorite or co-favorite. This trend may well continue with California Chrome (A4) in this year’s edition.

As of mid April 2014, Family A4 is represented by California Chrome and Bayern on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Family Horse/placing/year
A1 Sharp Gary (13th 1974); Media (5th 1975); Gato Del Sol (1st 1982)
A4 Television Studio (5th 1981); Freezing Rain (13th 1983); Fight Over (7th 1984); Althea* (19th 1984); Gulch (6th 1987); Momentus (14th 1987); Strodes Creek (2nd 1994); Corker (11th 1996)
A5 Fighting Fantasy (15th/last 1990); Eye of the Tiger (5th 2003); Sweetnorthernsaint* (7th 2006)
A11 Triple Crown (17th 1974)
A13 Houston (8th 1989)
A24 Answer Lively (10th 1999); Buzzard’s Bay (5th 2005)
A29 Tonka Wakhan (10th 1980); Excellent Meeting* (5th 1999)
C2 Lot o’ Gold (9th 1979); Golden Derby* (21st/last 1981)

*Horse was post time favorite or co-favorite.

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